The Future of U.S. Economic Growth

A paper (draft) by John Fernald and Charles I. Jones addresses the future of growth in the US. They argue that the contribution to economic growth of traditional sources - capital, labor, and ideas, might decrease. And there will be a shift towards research done in countries such as India and China, and towards artificial intelligence.

An interesting figure from the article: 

Freeman (2009) points out that in 1978, China produced almost no Ph.D.’s in science and engineering, but by 2010, they were producing 25 percent more than the United States.