13.5.12

Probability of military dictatorship

In this paper we have analyzed the probability of a country of experiencing a military dictatorship, using a panel of 48 African countries over the period 1970- 2007. We found a number of results. Income per capita negatively affects the probability of a military rule, with some nonlinearities, in particular lower levels of income per capita increases the probability of having the military in office, whereas as long as it increases the probability gets smaller. Manufacturing and primary sectors are positively related with military rule, whereas the share of GDP deriving from natural resources is insignificant. Larger openness to trade negatively affects military rule. Polarization and fractionalization have opposite effects, the former increases the probability of a military rule, while the latter decreases it. External threat becomes significantly positive only when lagged. Finally, crude oil may price negatively affect military rule, whereas agricultural price is usually non-significant.
That is from the paper "The Probability of Military Rule in Africa, 1970-2007" by Costa, Caruso, and Ricciuti.

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