Showing posts with label Nobel Prize. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nobel Prize. Show all posts

Oct 10, 2013

Nobel News

Alice Munro: The "master of the contemporary short story."

Martin Karplus
“My chemistry colleagues thought it was a waste of time,” he said of his early work in using computers to simulate molecular processes. “Now it has become a central part of chemistry and structural biology. … It has consecrated this field.” . . . 
Karplus is modest, energetic, and imaginative; he has perspective too. After the celebrations, he was soon planning dinner, expecting that he would enjoy it with just his family, without the phone ringing. Planning of that kind is familiar to Karplus, an amateur chef who for years during vacations volunteered to work in the kitchens of three-star restaurants in France and Spain.
More is here.  

Oct 20, 2012

A perfect match for a Nobel

Prof Roth does three things that are far too rare in economics. First, he really engages with the anthropological reality of how individual markets work, rather than immediately leaping to an abstract model. Second, he recognises ethical or cultural constraints – we don’t like the idea of buying and selling kidneys, for instance. Too many economists have simply argued that the constraints make no sense, shrugged and walked away. Prof Roth accepted them as a fact of life and worked around them.
That is from a very good article by Tim Harford on this year Nobel Laureates in economics.  Read it all, here

Oct 18, 2012

The Economics of Nobel Laureates

From Wikipedia
Previous studies on Nobel Laureates include Jones (2010) and Jones and Weinberg (2012). They find that innovations that resulted in Nobel Prizes are made increasingly later in life, a trend which can be observed across all disciplines. Weinberg and Galenson (2005) distinguish between two types of innovators and show that experimental scholars do their most important work later in life than conceptual laureates. Rablen and Oswald (2008) estimate that receiving a Nobel Prize raises life expectancy by between one and two years. 
And more: 
In a related paper, Ellison (2011) confirms that the productivity of all cohorts of economists at Harvard University’s economics department has remained high. But he also observes that these top economists have become less likely to publish in refereed journals. This tendency suggests that peer reviewed journals are losing importance relative to e.g. working papers as means of dissemination of research results for economists affiliated with top institutions.
Source.

Oct 15, 2012

Roth and Shapley win the 2012 Nobel Prize in Economics

. . . "for the theory of stable allocations and the practice of market design."

Alvin Roth, from Wikipedia:
Roth has worked in the fields of game theory, market design and experimental economics. In particular, he helped redesign mechanisms for selecting medical residents, New York City high schools and Boston primary schools.
His work on kidney exchange is fascinating:
Roth is also a founder of the New England Program for Kidney Exchange along with Tayfun Sonmez and Utku Unver,[16] a registry and matching program that pairs compatible kidney donors and recipients.[17]
The program was designed to operate primarily through the use of two pairs of incompatible donors. Each donor was incompatible with her partner but could be compatible with another donor who was likewise incompatible with his partner. Francis Delmonico, a transplant surgeon at Harvard Medical School, describes a typical situation,[18]
Kidney exchange enables transplantation where it otherwise could not be accomplished. It overcomes the frustration of a biological obstacle to transplantation. For instance, a wife may need a kidney and her husband may want to donate, but they have a blood type incompatibility that makes donation impossible. Now they can do an exchange. And we've done them. Now we are working on a three-way exchange.
Because the National Organ Transplant Act forbids the creation of binding contracts for organ transplant, steps in the procedure had to be performed roughly simultaneously. Two pairs of patients means four operating rooms and four surgical teams acting in concert with each other. Hospitals and professionals in the transplant community felt that the practical burden of three pairwise exchanges would be too large.[19]While the original theoretical work discovered that an "efficient frontier" would be reached with exchanges between three pairs of otherwise incompatible donors, it was determined that the goals of the program would not be sacrificed by limiting exchanges to pairs of incompatible donors. Recently, however, a twelve party (six donors and six recipients) kidney exchange was performed in April 2008.[20][21]
Shapley, photo from Wikipedia
Lloyd Shapley, from Wikipedia: 
He has been instrumental in the development of utility theory, and it was he who laid much of the groundwork for the solution of the problem of the existence of Von Neumann-Morgenstern stable sets.  
Roth's webpage is here, and a short description of Shapley's work is here.  
Here it is more form Marginal Revolution

Oct 11, 2012

Nobel Prize in Economics, Who Will Win?

My guesses :
1. Robert Shiller and Michael Jensen (financial economics).
2. Robert Barro (economic growth, real business cycle theories, etc.).
3. Jean Tirole (industrial organization, game theory, and financial economics).
4. Andrei Shleifer (behavioral finance and econ development in transition economies). 

Sep 21, 2012

Predictions for Nobel Prizes

Predictions for Nobel Prizes are starting to come out. For this year I am not going to make any, since I failed badly last year. However, there are some fields that will get Nobel Prizes in the future, or at least that is my hope:

1) Field experiments (RCTs).

2) Economics Blogging.

3) Humanities and economics.

Add. 4) Institutional Economics. 

Why bloggers? You might ask. Basically bloggers like Alex and Tyler at Marginal Revolution have done a great effort to make economics available to the general public. Besides their contributions to the economics debate on monetary policy, innovation, etc., etc., they have shaped a large audience that are now more aware of the economic way of thinking.  

Dec 23, 2011

Why does Orhan Pamuk write?

This is Orhan Pamuk acceptance-speech. He delivered it in 2006 when he was awarded the Nobel Prize in Literature. It is a gem: 
Why do you write? This is the question I've been asked most often in my writing career. Most of the time they mean this: What is the point, why do you give your time to this strange and impossible activity? Why do you write... You have to give an excuse, an apology for writing... This is how I have felt every time I've heard this question. But every time I give a different answer... Sometimes I say: I do not know why I write, but it definitely makes me feel good. I hope you feel the same when you read me! Sometimes I say that I am angry, and that is why I write. Most of the time the urge is to be alone in a room, so that is why I write. In my childhood I wanted to be a painter. I painted every day. I still have that childish feeling of joy and happiness whenever I write. I write to pursue that old childish happiness and that is why for me literature and writing are inextricably linked with happiness, or the lack of it... unhappiness. In my childhood, I felt happy, painted a lot, and all the grown ups were constantly smiling at me. Everybody was gentle, polite and tender. I wrote all about this in my autobiographical book, Istanbul. After the publication of Istanbul, some people asked me this question: Aren't you a bit young to write your autobiography? I kept my silence. Literature is about happiness, I wanted to say, about preserving your childishness all your life, keeping the child in you alive... Now, some years later, I've received this great prize. This time the same people begin asking another question: Aren't you a bit young to get the Nobel Prize? Actually the question I've heard most often since the news of this prize reached me is: How does it feel to get the Nobel Prize? I say, oh! It feels good. All the grown ups are constantly smiling at me. Suddenly everybody is again gentle, polite and tender. In fact, I almost feel like a prince. I feel like a child. Then for a moment, I realize why sometimes I have felt so angry. This prize, which brought back to me the tender smiles of my childhood and the kindness of the strangers, should have been given to me not at this age (54) which some think is too young, but much much earlier, even earlier than my childhood, perhaps two weeks after I was born, so that I could have enjoyed the princely feeling of being a child all my life. In fact now... come to think of it... That is why I write and why I will continue to write.
Source

Dec 17, 2011

7 Lessons by Nobel Laureate Thomas Sargent

Chris Sims and I thank you for recognizing the many women and men like us who use statistics and economic theory to understand how governments and markets can improve peoples' lives. I state 7 practical lessons taught by my beautiful subject, which investigates the consequences of time and chance and cooperation and competition and foresight and incentives. 
1. Many things that are desirable are not feasible. 
2. There are tradeoffs between equality and efficiency. 
3. Other people have more information about their abilities, their efforts, and their preferences than you do. 
4. Everyone responds to incentives, including people you want to help. That is why social safety nets don't always work as intended. 
5. When a government spends, its citizens eventually pay, either today or tomorrow, either through explicit taxes or implicit ones like inflation and defaults on debts. 
6. Most people want other people to pay for public goods and government transfers (especially transfers to themselves). 
7. It is feasible for one generation to shift costs to subsequent ones. National government debts and the U.S. social security system do that (but not the social security system of Singapore).
Source 

Oct 17, 2011

What does the Nobel Prize in Economics mean?

Anyone who imagines that the Nobel can tip the balance between rival schools of thought in macroeconomics or anything else is just being silly. The committee that chooses each year’s Nobel is just a committee — smart, well-informed, and scrupulous, but not gifted with godlike powers of discernment not granted to mortal men.
Source

Oct 10, 2011

Thomas Sargent's (Nobel Prize) graduation speech at Berkeley


Economics is organized common sense. Here is a short list of valuable lessons that our beautiful subject teaches.
1. Many things that are desirable are not feasible.
2. Individuals and communities face trade-offs.
3. Other people have more information about their abilities, their efforts, and their preferences than you do.
4. Everyone responds to incentives, including people you want to help. That is why social safety nets don’t always end up working as intended.
5. There are tradeoffs between equality and efficiency.
6. In an equilibrium of a game or an economy, people are satisfied with their choices. That is why it is difficult for well meaning outsiders to change things for better or worse.
7. In the future, you too will respond to incentives. That is why there are some promises that you’d like to make but can’t. No one will believe those promises because they know that later it will not be in your interest to deliver. The lesson here is this: before you make a promise, think about whether you will want to keep it if and when your circumstances change. This is how you earn a reputation.
8. Governments and voters respond to incentives too. That is why gov-
ernments sometimes default on loans and other promises that they have
made.
19. It is feasible for one generation to shift costs to subsequent ones. That is what national government debts and the U.S. social security system do (but not the social security system of Singapore).
10. When a government spends, its citizens eventually pay, either today or tomorrow, either through explicit taxes or implicit ones like inflation.
11. Most people want other people to pay for public goods and government transfers (especially transfers to themselves).
12. Because market prices aggregate traders’ information, it is difficult to forecast stock prices and interest rates and exchange rates.

Nobel Prize goes to expectations research

They were in the predictions, so it is not a big surprise. They research agenda is very related to that of Robert Lucas'. Congratulations! This is a very interesting and a very important research agenda. Expectations are at the core of macroeconomics!
See this interview with Christopher Sims
See this interview with Thomas Sargent. 

Oct 9, 2011

More predictions on the Nobel Prize in Economics


A day before the announcement of the prestigious 10 million kronor ($1.5 million) award, Americans Robert Barro and Paul Romer stand out as favorites for the prize for their research on growth, leading experts say.
It looks like a very solid combination! See this video where Paul Romer explains charter cities and institutional transformations. His main idea is that we need institutions to change existing institutions. Pretty interesting!
HT: @bethzrosen
Source

Oct 7, 2011

Is this Gordon Tullock's year for the Nobel Prize in Economics?

Why? He has an impressive publication record. Several of his contributions were very influential in the field of political-economy and political-science. He set up the "first stones" of Public Choice Theory with James Buchanan. A truly interdisciplinary scholar, and a defender of rational choice models of the world. 

What comes to mind when I think about Gordon Tullock is an image of him, sited on a chair at the Center for the Study of Public Choice during the weekly seminars. He sat there looking bothered and preoccupied by the ideas of whomever was presenting a paper. He seemed to be thinking so hard that his facial expression reflected his focused thinking. He closed his eyes almost entirely probably to try to fit the presenters' ideas into his (Tullock's) models of the world; or probably trying to fit the presenter's evidence into some historical event that Tullock knew happened several hundreds of years before in a region of India or China. He balanced his chair back and forth to the point that I was always worried that he was going to fall down. He never did. While the presentation continued he rose his had, and asked how the presenter's theory explained the events that had happened in the province of Shandong, Eastern China, between the years 1622 and 1623, or something like that. It goes without saying the the presenter simply admitted that he had no idea, which made Professor Tullock even more upset.   

In his very good article, "The Non-Nobelist" John Miller describe Tullock's personality:
Shortly after George Mason University opened its new law-school building a few years ago, then-governor of Virginia Jim Gilmore toured it. He asked to meet Gordon Tullock, a renowned economist on the faculty. Off a curving fourth-floor hallway, in Tullock’s freshly furnished office, the two men shook hands. “You’re the governor?” asked Tullock. “Good. Then maybe you can fix the leak in my ceiling.”
And that, in a nutshell, may explain why Tullock has failed to win a Nobel Prize in economics — an award he richly deserves, but one that has eluded him for decades. He is famously impolitic, and has developed a knack for provocation — a skill that can be either irritating or endearing. Whatever its effect, however, Tullock’s fondness for controversy is backed up by a daring intellect that cuts across disciplines and has shaped free-market thinking for more than a generation. “Gordon is one of the most original-minded persons in the world,” says Milton Friedman, who took home the Nobel in 1976. “I always thought it was a mistake not to let him have a prize.”
As the Nobel Foundation prepares to name this year’s recipient in October, it would do well to reconsider the case for Tullock. He has led an important and influential life, despite being constantly overlooked.
Tullock, now 84, was born and raised in Rockford, Ill. Although he attended the University of Chicago, he never formally received his bachelor’s degree because he objected to paying a $5 fee. 
Tullock eventually earned his law degree and went into private practice. This lasted four months. “I participated in two minor court cases — I won one that I should have lost, and I lost one that I should have won,” he says.  
Tullock eventually earned his law degree and went into private practice. This lasted four months. “I participated in two minor court cases — I won one that I should have lost, and I lost one that I should have won,” he says. He then entered the Foreign Service and spent several years in China, Hong Kong, and Korea, sparking a lifelong fascination with international relations. He’s currently writing a book on the history of U.S. foreign affairs. “Since about 1890, our policies almost always have been wrong,” he says with a smirk — as usual, he’s seeking a reaction. He describes why it was a mistake to have intervened in the First World War and how Pearl Harbor might have been avoided. Then he suggests that it might be worthwhile, right now, for the U.S. to invade Brazil: “We could move into the jungle and develop it.” A couple of years ago, in fact, he drafted a paper urging this course of action. “I had the good sense not to give it wide circulation.” If nothing else, Tullock loves to start an argument — even one that guarantees he won’t ever win the Nobel Peace Prize. 
This was the start of a remarkably productive association. Buchanan invited Tullock to Charlottesville for a year-long fellowship. By the time it was over, in 1959, the two had agreed to collaborate on a book about the economics of constitutions and democracies. Curiously, Tullock doesn’t vote: “Anthony Downs [an economist] convinced me long ago that I stand a greater chance of being killed in a car accident on the way to the polls than I do of making a difference with my vote,” he says. “So why bother?” Tullock takes great pleasure in announcing this view — and on Election Day, friends enjoy attaching their “I Voted” stickers to his office door. 
Yet in 1986, when the Nobel people decided that public-choice theory had matured to the point of deserving the prize, they gave it to Buchanan alone. He had certainly earned it, and his distinguished career included many books and papers that he had written by himself. At the center of his achievement, however, lay his work with Tullock. When National Journal asked Buchanan’s co-author about being skipped over, Tullock shot back: “I’m mad about it, to put it bluntly.” 
The slight was both obvious and gratuitous: In the 36 years since the economics prize was first awarded in 1969, it has been shared 16 times. Some thought that Tullock was a victim of his background. Lacking any formal training in economics beyond that single law-school class, he was possibly seen as an interloper who didn’t truly qualify. Moreover, Tullock has been called a “natural economist,” meaning that he did not have to sit through hours of lectures to understand his discipline. Nor did he have to write a thick dissertation. His contributions to economics have come in the form of big ideas and deep insights, rather than the technical genius and mathematical rigor that increasingly dominate the field. Tullock himself thinks something else may have played a role: “I have no doubt that I was making a lot of nasty cracks about Sweden and its socialist economy in those days.” The Nobel Foundation, of course, is based in Stockholm. 
By the time he had missed out on the big prize, Tullock was used to snubs. As a professor at the University of Virginia in the 1960s, he was turned down for promotion three times, prompting him to leave. “I could see they didn’t want me around,” he says. There’s a nomadic quality to his life, with its spells at the University of South Carolina, Rice, Virginia Tech, and the University of Arizona. His current appointment, at George Mason, is actually his second stop at the school. Keep reading . . .
I cross my fingers, and hope he wins. It might be his last chance, although we have said this year after year. I any case, this post is a small tribute for a scholar I admire a lot; for his sharpness, originality, diligent work, and great writing skills. 

Nobel Prize in Economics - my ranked preferences

1. Gordon Tullock and Robert Barro
3. Richard Easterlin
4. Halbert L. White, Jr. (HT Julio Cole).

Oct 6, 2011

What’s Wrong With the Nobel Prize in Literature


This article argues that being in a committee that picks the winner implies an arduous task. They have to read might be hundreds of books every year.
What a relief then from time to time to say, the hell with it and give it to a Swede, in this case the octogenarian acknowledged as his nation’s finest living poet and a man whose whole oeuvre, as Peter Englund charmingly remarks, could fit into a single slim paperback. A winner, in short, whom the whole jury can read in the original pure Swedish in just a few hours. Perhaps they needed a sabbatical. Not to mention the detail, not irrelevant in these times of crisis, that the $1.5-million-dollar prize will stay in Sweden.
But most healthy of all, a decision like this, which we all understand would never have been taken by say, an American jury, or a Nigerian jury, or perhaps above all a Norwegian jury, reminds us of the essential silliness of the prize and our own foolishness at taking it seriously. Eighteen (or sixteen) Swedish nationals will have a certain credibility when weighing up works of Swedish literature, but what group could ever really get its mind round the infinitely varied work of scores of different traditions. And why should we ask them to do that?
I can't even start to assess the merits of the current winner, Tomas Tranströmer, but there is a fundamental point in the article. At least in economics there are more or less objective measures that makes it easier to choose the winner, such as article citations. Besides, the majority of the economics literature is in English. In fact, what the Nobel Committee could do in the case of economics is to choose one name from the predictions, and nobody would be surprised. Picking the economics winner is definitely easier, by a lot, than choosing the literature winner. Judging esthetics is a very subjective and potentially conflict-prone task.

More predictions on the Nobel Prize in Economics



"If the bettors in a long-running pool are right, Harvard University’s Al Roth is going to get a call from Sweden early Monday morning telling him that he’s won the Nobel in economics."
"So far, he has garnered 8.87% of the bets in a $1-a-wager pool run by Harvard graduate students on who will win the prize (properly “The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel“). A noted game theorist, Mr. Roth helped design, among other things, the systems for matching kidney donors with patients and New York City students with schools."
"Close behind is Yale University’s Robert Shiller, with 8.16% of the bets. The father of behavioral finance — a celebrated 1981 paper by Mr. Shiller struck an early blow against efficient markets hypothesis – he was also sounded warnings on both the dot-com bubble and the housing bubble."
"Next is the University of San Diego’s Halbert White, with 6.38%. Little known outside the field, Mr. White pioneered statistical and modeling techniques now widely used by economists."
"Other top bets: University of Chicago Booth School of Business behaviorist Richard Thaler, Harvard macroeconomist Robert Barro and University of Chicago econometricianLars Hansen." Source

Oct 3, 2011

Immune-System Researchers Win Nobel

Three scientists were awarded the Nobel prize for medicine for work on the immune system, although the death of one of the winners just days before the announcement has created a dilemma for the Swedish committee. Keep reading . . . 

Sep 21, 2011

Prediction of the Nobel Prize in Economics (and others).

Here. I am happy to see that Gordon Tullock is there. Do you know about other predictors? HT Justin Wolfers, via Twitter.
PS Their accuracy, according to this, is around 60%.