May 3, 2011

How has Brazil done in the past 10 years in some economic indicators? What are some of the predictions?

This article shows a reduction in poverty rates (since 2004, from around 35% to around 20%) and inequality (since 1998, approximately from a Gini of 0.6 to 0.54). There is also an increasing trend in economic growth since 1999 (to almost 8% in 2011).

These are some predictions by 2050 (Brazil the 4th largest economy).

What are the mechanisms behind the high rates of growth (especially in the manufacturing sector): Innovation and access to finance. Source.

There are a number of interesting findings that appear to be robust across several specifications. First, like in many developing countries, also in Brazil, innovation strategies involve mostly technology acquisition, by acquiring know-how embodied in machinery and equipment, exclusively but also substantially, in combination with own internal development.
Access to finance:
Another robust factor driving innovative performance is the access to finance. This supports policy interventions to alleviate the financial constraints, by improving financial market functioning and/or providing financial incentives. Finally, our results on international linkages are somewhat mixed. International openness is important for stimulating firm growth performance, but this openness works particularly through competition as an incentive device for cost improvements, stimulating firm growth, but not necessarily as a mechanism for technology absorption improving innovative performance. Again this can be related to the specifics of the Brazilian case, which has for a long time protected local champions in its innovation policy.
The future looks bright. Here.

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