These results suggest that a paradigm shift toward OA [Open Access] in the immediate future is fairly unlikely.
Still, there are certain factors which might alter (and even invert) this trend. First of all, scientific
communities and departments could trigger self-enforcing prophecies and enact policies designed to
enhance the perception of OA journals. Second, the fact that universities increasingly struggle to
pay for costly journal subscriptions could become a rallying point for redirecting academics’choices, both as authors and as readers, towards the new OA publications. Our empirical findings show that familiarity with OA journals in effect increases the probability of submitting papers to
them. In this respect, we note the interesting case of associate professors who, as siblings of OA
journals, are more likely to submit their work to them. An important help in catalysing change
might come from emerging countries, where OA journals are more favourably perceived. As such
nations come to play a larger role in the academic community, they could become the main
supporters of OA. (p. 27-28).
That is from this paper by Matteo Migheli and Giovanni B. Ramello. The title is "Open Access Journals & Academics’ Behaviour."
HT: Jonas Holmström
This paper, "Academic Publishing and Open Access," by Mueller-Langer and Scheufen compares closed access with open access journals:
